β收敛、空间依赖与中国制造业发展

　　A Study on β Convergence and Spatial Dependence of China's Manufacturing Industry from the Global Financial Crisis to China's New Normal

　　中文关键词: 制造业 时间β收敛 空间β收敛 时空β收敛

　　英文关键词: Manufacturing Industry Temporal β Convergence Spatial β Convergence Temporal spatial β Convergence

　　基金项目:本文获得国家社科基金青年项目“基于空间统计技术的中国制造业新常态发展路径研究”（批准号：16CTJ009）的资助。

　　作者/单位

　　刘明，兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心；兰州财经大学统计学院

　　王思文，兰州财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

　　中文摘要:

　　研究目标：探究欧盟否认中国市场经济地位，对中国、欧盟及世界经济的宏观、产业以及贸易的影响。研究方法：将“非市场经济地位”折算为“反倾销等值税”，利用全球贸易分析模型针对欧盟对中国征收的进口关税进行计算。研究发现：欧盟否认中国市场经济地位不会缓解欧盟就业压力，反而使欧盟出口在中国总进口占比下降001个百分点；同时，全世界资源配置效率下降，进一步导致全世界整体福利下降；虽然欧盟否认中国市场经济地位使中国对欧盟出口减少约506亿美元，但中国向世界其他地区的出口量均有所上升；而且有利于中国产业结构优化，对供给侧改革有一定的激励作用。研究创新：将“非市场经济地位”折算为“反倾销等值税”。研究价值：在研究非数值变量时（如市场经济地位），可利用其直接影响的变量（反倾销）造成的直接经济损失，折算为适当的指标变量（等值关税）。中国对世界经济的贡献和影响巨大，市场经济地位不容否认。

　　英文摘要:

　　Research Objectives：Discussing the β convergence characteristics of Chinas manufacturing industry Research Methods: Using Barro and Sala I Martin β convergence equation to make two new models from spatial perspective, and using these models including Barro and Sala I Martins β convergence equation to research the convergence of Chinas manufacturing industry from temporal dimension and spatial dimension Research Findings: The investigation of σ convergence and β convergence from temporal dimension showed that, Chinas manufacturing industry existed σ convergence and β convergence features, which β convergence features was different in different sample period and different sample regional The investigation of β convergence from spatial dimension showed that, In financial crisis during 2007~2010, spatial β convergence feature was obvious, but in Chinas New Normal during 2011~2015, the spatial βconvergence was fading In the view of the perspective on time and space, Chinas manufacturing industry was convergence Research Innovations: Designing and building new models to test the spatial convergence of Chinas manufacturing industry Research Value: Studying on the industrial convergence could be from the two dimensions of time and space Convergence characteristics of Chinese manufacturing industry had regional differences.　　

　　中国出口增速下降的驱动因素研究

　　Research on Driving Factors of Decline inChinas Export Growth

　　中文关键词: 增加值出口 国外需求 全球生产分工 分层式结构分解法

　　英文关键词: Value Added Export Foreign Demand Global Fragmentation of Production Hierarchical Structural Decomposition Analysis

　　基金项目:本文为国家自然科学基金项目“强制性生育政策、低生育陷阱与中国经济的长期增长：微观机理与实证检验”（71473118）阶段性成果，本研究同时受到教育部重点研究基地重大项目“长江三角洲全面建设小康社会中的开放发展研究”（16JJD790025）、安庆师范大学校内青年基金项目“产业转移背景下安徽省外贸结构与产业结构的耦合性研究”（SK201407）和农业部农业国际交流合作项目“‘一带一路’背景下的中国农机‘走出去’战略研究”（GHS1715）的资助。

　　作者/单位

　　葛阳琴，南京大学经济学院；安庆师范大学经济与管理学院

　　谢建国，南京大学经济学院

　　中文摘要:

　　研究目标：研究2011~2014年中国出口增速下降的驱动因素。研究方法：从增加值贸易视角运用分层式结构分解法（HSDA）。研究发现：中国出口增速下降既有周期性因素，也有结构性因素；其中，国外需求下降是决定性因素，贡献度为859%，受需求水平下降和需求结构变化共同影响；生产分工变化是重要影响因素，贡献度为136%，主要受前向产业关联变化和国内生产分工调整影响；增加值系数变化影响较小，仅为05%。研究创新：基于GMRIO模型将多种因素纳入统一的分析框架，定量分析各因素对中国出口增速下降的影响。研究价值：对处于转型期的中国外贸维持出口平稳增长有重要的现实意义和实践价值。

　　英文摘要:

　　Research Objectives: This paper studies on the driving factors of decline in Chinas export growth Research Methods: Using hierarchical structural decomposition analysis(HSDA) based on value added trade Research Findings: Both cyclical factors and structural factors contribute to the decline in Chinas export growth Decrease in foreign demand, which is influenced by both demand level and demand structure, is the crucial factor and accounts for 859 percent of the decline Moreover, change in global fragmentation of production contributes to 136 percent, where change in Chinas forward linkage and domestic fragmentation play a major role However, change in value added coefficients only accounts for 05 percent Research Innovations: This paper integrates multiple factors into a unified analytical framework and quantifies the effect of each factor on the decline in Chinas export growth Research Value: The conclusions has significance to stabilize Chinas export growth in the transition period.