【专题讨论·经济高质量发展】

　　1.阙澄宇, 李金凯, 程立燕：高质量发展下如何推进汇率市场化与资本账户开放？——来自134个经济体的经验证据

　　[作者单位]

　　阙澄宇 李金凯 程立燕，东北财经大学 国际经济贸易学院。

　　[摘要]在我国继续稳步推进对外开放的现实背景下，理清汇率市场化与资本账户开放之间的顺序不仅是一个理论上需要廓清的争议问题，而且也是现实中需要明确和考量的问题。以往研究在探讨两者之间的顺序时，大多以经济增长或金融危机发生概率作为参照系。在我国经济向高质量发展转型的战略背景下，文章以全要素生产率作为参照系，分别构建了汇率制度和资本账户开放对全要素生产率的影响方程，采用非线性建模技术-PSTR模型深入研究了两者对全要素生产率的影响及推进策略。研究表明：（1）汇率制度对全要素生产率的影响具有显著的非线性特征，随着资本账户开放程度的加深，该系数由负转正。这表明资本账户开放能够减弱汇率波动对全要素生产率的负向影响。（2）资本账户开放对全要素生产率的影响显著为负，且随着汇率制度的变迁呈现出阶段性特征，在汇率弹性足够高时，该负向影响显著下降。这表明增加汇率弹性能够显著降低资本账户开放对全要素生产率的负向冲击。（3）资本账户开放能够减弱汇率制度对全要素生产率的负向影响，同时更加富有弹性的汇率制度也能够显著降低资本账户开放对全要素生产率的负向冲击。因此，汇率市场化与资本账户开放互为前提，两者应该协同推进，从而在保证更高层次对外开放的同时，实现经济高质量发展。

　　[关键词] 资本账户开放; 汇率市场化; 全要素生产率; 面板平滑转换模型

　　How to Promote the Exchange Rate Marketization and Capital Account Liberalization in the Stage of High Quality Development of Economy? Empirical Evidence from 134 Economies

　　Que Chengyu  Li Jinkai  Cheng Liyan

　　[Summary] The promotion order between exchange rate marketization and capital account openness is one of the hotspots and debates in the field of international finance. Some scholars support the reform order of "internal first,external next",while others believe that they should be promoted in a coordinated manner. In view of the above two points,some scholars try to use econometric methods such as the Granger causality test and VAR model to determine the promotion order,but these methods are often limited to the selection of samples and depend on the data to a large degree,and different samples may draw different conclusions. Due to the lack of a reference system,the promotion order between exchange rate marketization and capital account openness is not determined. What is the basis or determination?The economic development level,total factor productivity or financial stability?If there is no basis,it is difficult to make a clear judgment on the promotion strategy. If the reference system is abandoned,the investigation only based on the data does not have practical significance.

　　In view of this,this paper refers to the study of Rodriguez(2017),constructs the influence equation of the exchange rate regime on total factor productivity(with capital account openness as the conversion variable)and the influence equation of capital account openness on total factor productivity(with the exchange rate system as the conversion variable),respectively. Moreover,total factor productivity is selected as the reference system,and a non-linear modeling technology PSTR model is adopted to investigate the promotion strategy. It is revealed that the exchange rate regime has a significant non-linear effect on total factor productivity,the influence coefficient changes from negative to positive with the increase of capital account openness,which indicates that capital account openness can weaken the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on total factor productivity. The influence coefficient of capital account openness on total factor productivity is negative,and it shows obvious stage characteristics with the change of the exchange rate regime. When the exchange rate regime is flexible enough,its negative impact decreases significantly,which indicates that a more flexible exchange rate regime is conducive to absorbing the negative impact of capital account openness. Therefore,with total factor productivity as a reference system,there is a mutual adjustment mechanism between exchange rate marketization and capital account openness. Capital account openness is the premise of exchange rate marketization,and exchange rate marketization is also the prerequisite of capital account openness. They should be promoted in a coordinated way.

　　Compared with the existing results,the possible contributions of this paper are as follows:First,the exchange rate regime and capital account openness are taken as the key explanatory variable and adjustment variable respectively,which enriches the literature with respect to the promotion order of exchange rate marketization and capital account openness,and overcomes the shortcomings of the existing literature that only employ one of them as the key explanatory variable and adjustment variable,making the research more comprehensive and detailed. Second,compared with most existing literature that directly adopt the interactive terms(only the first-order non-linear relations can be identified),this paper utilizes a non-linear method-the PSTR model,which can identify higher-order non-linear relations and solve the problem of missing implicit non-linear relations. Third,compared with most existing literature focusing on economic growth or financial crisis,this paper conducts the analysis from the perspective of total factor productivity to re-judge the promotion order. The study can provide theoretical support and a decision-making basis for how to promote exchange rate marketization and capital account openness in the constitutive reform and transition from quantitative growth to qualitative development of China's economic development.

　　[Key words] capital account liberalization|exchange rate marketization|total factor productivity|panel smooth transition model

　　[基金项目]国家社会科学基金一般项目（15BJY154）