·扩展目录·

1.辜胜阻 吴永斌 王建润：“五线”城市培育的思考与战略对策

【摘 要】文章从中国城市规模结构失衡的现实入手，分析了培育“五线”城市的现实基础及对城镇化健康发展的重要作用。文章认为，解决中国城市规模结构失衡问题需要以城市群作为推进城镇化的主平台，以大城市带动小城市发展，大力培育“五线”城市，改变城市群内中小城市发展严重不足的现状，实现大、中、小城市的协调发展。目前，中国部分特大镇已初步具备了城市的规模与特征，将特大镇改为县辖市是发展“五线”城市的重要途径，政府要重视基层创新和顶层设计，以改革引领制度供给,有序推动特大镇改市。培育“五线城市”要坚持以人为本、产业兴城，并赋予特大镇相应的部分县级行政管理权限和城市管理职能，完善城市功能。

【关键词】“五线”城市 城镇化 特大镇改市  城市体系

【作者简介】

辜胜阻，武汉大学战略管理研究院，教授；

吴永斌，武汉大学经济与管理学院，博士研究生；

王建润，武汉大学经济与管理学院，硕士研究生。

【责任编辑】朱 犁

Thinking and Strategic Countermeasures of Cultivating the Fifth-tier Cities

Gu Shengzu and Others

Focusing on structural unbalance of China's urban system, this paper analyses the foundation of cultivating the fifth-tier cities and its important role on the healthy development of urbanization. The paper indicates that, in order to solve the problem of structural unbalance, it is necessary to take urban agglomeration as the main approach and change the situation of underdevelopment of small and medium-sized cities, to achieve coordinative development of megacities, small and medium-sized cities. At present, some of large towns almost had city's size and characteristics. A key to develop fifth-tier cities is to turn some large towns into cities with county's administration. The government should pay more attention to basic innovation and top-level design, speed up reform to improve institutional supply, and orderly change large towns to county level cities. To cultivate the fifth-tier cities, we should adhere to people-oriented mode, develop cities based on industries, provide big towns with corresponding administrative authority and city's management functions.

2.穆怀中 陈 洋 陈 曦：灵活就业人员参保缴费激励机制研究——以家庭预期收益效用为视角

【摘 要】文章从“家”的视角出发，分析灵活就业人员家庭预期效用对参保缴费的影响。文章认为，参保者的风险规避心理、个人生命周期的不可预期、地方相关制度政策的差异、延迟退休后的效用损失是制约灵活就业人员养老保险缴费家庭预期效用和影响缴费积极性的内在因素。文章依据这四大内在因素，设计出养老保险参保缴费激励的3种制度方案，并建立家庭预期效用计量模型。定量分析发现，参保的风险持续期和风险水平与缴费时间和缴费档次正相关，但现行的制度设计仍有激励性，且随着预期寿命的延长而更加显著。现行的方案一参保的风险持续期长，风险水平高，应及时调整。部分地区实施的方案二虽然提高了预期效用但不符合养老保险发展规律。方案三既有相关的法律基础，又能够实现政府和家庭的双赢，是最佳的选择。在此基础上，文章提出相关政策建议。

【关键词】 养老保险 灵活就业 参保率 家庭预期效用 预期寿命

【作者简介】

穆怀中，辽宁大学人口研究所，教授；

陈 洋，辽宁大学经济学院，博士研究生；

陈 曦，辽宁大学人口研究所，助理研究员。

【责任编辑】朱　犁

A Study of Payment Mechanism of Flexible Employment in Pension Insurance: From the perspective of Families' Expected Utility

Mu Huaizhong and Others

From the perspective of family, this paper examines the impact of families' expected utility on payment mechanism of flexible employment in pension insurance. The paper points out that risk aversion mentality of the insured, unexpectation of personal life cycle, the differences of local institution or policy, and the utility loss after delaying retirement are the internal mechanisms that restrict insured families' expected utility and affect their insurance decision. According to the above four internal incentive mechanisms, three system schemes are designed, and an insured families' expected utility model is established. The quantitative analysis finds that the risk duration and risk degree of the insured family are positively correlated to the pay duration and pay level. However, the current system scheme is still incentive and becomes more incentive with the expansion of life expectancy. The Scheme 1 should be adjusted timely according to long-time risk duration and high level of risk. The Scheme 2, in some regions, improves expected utility but does not conform to the rule of endowment insurance development. The Scheme 3 with a large relevant legal basis is the best choice leading to a win-win situation of the government and the families. With above analysis, some relevant suggestions are put forward.

3.李 锐 晏理慧子 朱雅婷：延迟退休激励与养老金制度优化——来自“公积金制”与部分积累制的经验

【摘 要】文章从延迟退休激励视角比较部分积累制与“公积金制”的差异，引入养老金收益率作为选择标准，通过两期OLG模型和精算模型对养老金制度进行结构化分析，并在此基础上利用生命周期财富选择模型进行实证研究。研究结果发现，苏州工业园区参保职工平均退休年龄比苏州市延迟近两岁，基于这一事实的理论分析表明，职工历史缴费情况会影响退休行为；制度内生激励效应导致两种养老金制度下实际退休年龄出现差异，缴费工资、缴费月数等制度因素对两地职工的退休激励效果不同，同等条件下低人力资本群体更倾向于提前退休。因此，养老金制度优化应考虑职工的劳动贡献并关注个体异质性对激励效果的影响。相对于提高法定退休年龄，建立制度内生激励机制、优化养老金制度结构或许是更优的选择。

【关键词】部分积累制 公积金制 延迟退休激励

【作者简介】

李锐，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院，教授；

晏理慧子，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院，硕士研究生；

朱雅婷，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院，硕士研究生。

【责任编辑】朱　萍

Incentives of Deferring Retirement and Optimization of Pension System: Based on the Experience of "Provident Fund System" and Partially Funded System　

Li Rui and Others

This paper compares the difference between partially funded system and "provident fund system" from the perspective of deferred retirement incentives, and introduces the pension yield rate as the selection criterion. By using the OLG and actuarial model, the pension system is structured and analyzed. On this basis, Life-cycle Wealth Choice Model is used for empirical analysis. The results show that the average retirement age of workers in Suzhou Industrial Park is nearly two more years senior than that in Suzhou. Theoretical analysis shows that historical contribution of workers will affect retirement behavior. Endogenous incentives are key factors leading to the difference in retirement age between the two systems. Institutional factors, such as wage index and payment months, have different effects on retirement incentives under the two systems. Under the same conditions, the low human capital group is more inclined to early retirement. It is suggestive to take the labour contribution of workers and the policy effect of the individual heterogeneity into consideration. In contrast to delay retirement age, the establishment of institutional endogenous incentive mechanism and the structural adjustment of pension system can be a better option.